So what will it take to persuade the U.S. intelligence community that Tehran's nuclear intentions aren't exactly peaceful? "Perhaps nothing short of an explosion" (see below).

Indeed. Nothing is more worrisome than a risk-averse intelligence community...

Overwhelming evidence indicates that Iran is moving full speed ahead with its militarized nuclear program, although short of a mushroom cloud over our heads, we can never be 100% certain.

So why is our Intel community so “reluctant to say so?” Is it still shell-shocked from “WMD mistakes over Iraq?”

Well, aside from the fact that U.S. assessments about WMDs (or lack thereof) in Iraq still cannot be proven definitively either way (i.e., if you can't find a needle in a haystack, does it mean the needle doesn't exist?), the thing about guessing games in national security and matters of life and death: Always better to err on the side of being overly-cautious, than not being cautious enough!

A former Israel ambassador to the UN, Dan Gillerman, recently said with respect to Israel: “I would rather see… a living Israel condemned, than a dying Israel receive the sympathy and condolences of the international community.”

As far as we're concerned, the same should apply with respect to the U.S.