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December 10, 2012

On Our Way Out

According to a new intelligence report, the United States will no longer be the world's only superpower by 2030 (see below), although it will likely “remain 'first among equals' among the other great powers."

The report warns against the consequences of a U.S. withdrawal from the world's stage, as a “collapse or sudden retreat of US power would most likely result in an extended period of global anarchy.”

Well, to that we would say, thanks for the warning, but it’s too late. The uprisings and disorder we are seeing today throughout the Middle East, indeed throughout most of the world are in fact the beginning (if not more) of global anarchy.

President Obama has kept his campaign promise to “transform America” and has done so by leading (when at all) from behind.

Then again, keep in mind this report is from the same folk who gave us the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which declared with “high confidence” that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, “primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure.”

Politico  |  December 10, 2012

Intelligence Community: U.S. Out As Sole Superpower By 2030

By Byron Tau

Chinese Military.jpg
The Chinese military.

A new report by the intelligence community projects that the United States will no longer be the world's only superpower by 2030.

"In terms of the indices of overall power – GDP, population size, military spending and technological investment – Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined," the report concludes.

“Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" — prepared by the office of the National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence — projects that the "unipolar" world that emerged after the fall of the Soviet Union will not continue.

"With the rapid rise of other countries, the 'unipolar moment' is over and no country – whether the U.S., China, or any other country – will be a hegemonic power," the report argues.

"The United States’ relative economic decline vis-a-vis the rising states is inevitable and already occurring,but its future role in the international system is much harder to assess," it argues.

"Global Trends" projects that the United States will retain a unique role in the international system — in part because of its history and past leadership.

"The U.S. most likely will remain 'first among equals' among the other great powers, due to the legacy of its leadership role in the world and the dominant role it has played in international politics across the board in both hard and soft power," it argues.

And the intelligence community does not believe the United States will be supplanted as the world's only superpower by another country.

"The replacement of the United States by another global power and erection of a new international order seems the least likely outcome in this time period," the report projects.

The report argues that rising powers like China, India and Brazil are not unified by any common ideology and are more focused on their regional role. And the report warns against the consequences of a U.S. withdrawal from the world's stage.

"A collapse or sudden retreat of US power would most likely result in an extended period of global anarchy," it argues.

Original article here.


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