Investors.com  |  February 10, 2014

IBD Editorials

As U.S. Weakness Leads To Global Rearmament, Can War Be Far Behind?

Deja Vu: As the U.S. defense posture continues to slump, several onetime allies are getting nervous about growing threats and starting to rearm. Not to be alarmist, but isn't that what happened just before World War II?

It's no exaggeration to say that President Obama, by slashing defense spending, is encouraging other nations to step up their arms programs to fill the growing void left by a shrinking U.S. military.

The numbers are stark. According to a recent report by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, U.S. defense outlays hit a post-World War II high in 2010. Since then, after inflation, they've fallen 21%.

And, no, the drop can't be blamed on the winding down of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Even without those, real spending is down 12%, with 2013's drop being the biggest since the Korean War.

America's defense decay is being noticed. Two weeks ago Germany, of all nations, announced it was considering rearming, given stark new global realities surrounding it and the need to be able to respond to threats.

"Germany is too large just to comment on world politics," said Germany's foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, in an ominous Jan. 30 interview. "America cannot be everywhere."

Meanwhile, Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, alarmed at China's muscle-flexing near the Senkaku Islands and the growing threat from North Korea, wants to reverse his nation's postwar pacifist constitution to let its military help allies who are attacked.

As the website American Interest noted recently, Japan has already "concluded defense agreements with half a dozen new nations like Australia and England, and agreed to deals for Japanese military equipment with the Philippines and India and others."

This is happening because it's unclear today what, if anything, the U.S. might use its defense assets for, apart from repelling an attack on U.S. soil.

Shows of weakness in the face of recent challenges from Russia, China, Iran and even Syria have made our allies think twice about counting on us for protection.

This uncertainty has been a boon for our would-be foes. China, which until quite recently was increasing its defense spending at a double-digit clip, is expected to boost outlays this year at a still-respectable 6% or so.

Meanwhile, Russia is using its oil boom to rebuild a Soviet-era military into a modern force. For those who believe it's no longer a power, a recent piece in World Affairs ranks Russia as the world's No. 2 military — and, as with No. 3 China, its military is growing.

A headline in the Moscow Times earlier this month was blunt: "Russia Prioritizes Military Buildup As NATO Cuts Back." Could it be any clearer?

And if you wonder at all why Germany and Japan, two nations that had near-pacifist policies in place for almost 70 years following World War II, are now eagerly rearming, look no further than this: China and Russia loom as major threats, and it's not clear anymore that the U.S. under Obama will protect its allies should an attack occur. At least, that's what our allies believe.

Both world wars of the last century began this way — with weakness, growing pledges of mutual defense and reckless military moves taken because belligerent nations didn't feel any country would stop them.

Such miscalculations led to the deaths of more than 70 million people. Will the world's nations, grown fat and prosperous under the U.S. defense umbrella, have to learn this bloody lesson once again?

The main reason the world was so peaceful for over a half-century after World War II was that American military might, both conventional and nuclear, guaranteed the security of allies such as Japan and Germany against all comers. The world was prosperous and safe.

Today, we're still No. 1, but others are closing the gap. And our will to defend ourselves and our allies is very much in question.

We may think we're doing the world a favor by unilaterally disarming, but we're not. The world is full of bad actors, and it desperately needs a sheriff. Neither Russia nor China nor Europe nor Japan can fulfill that role.

Weakness is not a virtue. Sadly, that seems to be a lesson that each new generation must learn for itself — one that will someday again cost us dearly.

Original article here.